As the dust settles on one Premier League season and anticipation builds for the next, early indicators of where the challenges might lie begin to emerge. Among the most fascinating barometers of perceived team strength and weakness is the betting market. Punters, armed with opinions, statistics, and perhaps a touch of optimism or cynicism, place their wagers, collectively highlighting potential narratives for the campaign ahead.
For the 2025/26 season, the data offers a somewhat surprising early frontrunner for a difficult time. According to recent betting figures, Nottingham Forest has attracted the most significant volume of bets predicting their relegation. A substantial 34% of all bets placed in this specific market have targeted the City Ground club for a potential return to the Championship. This level of backing, while not necessarily translating to the shortest odds (Forest are currently priced around 9/1), indicates a strong sentiment among bettors that the Tricky Trees face considerable risk.
Why the apprehension surrounding Forest? The betting trends seem to reflect concerns about potential squad changes. Reports of key players potentially departing – notably the confirmed sale of Anthony Elanga and speculation surrounding midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White – appear to weigh heavily on punters` minds. While securing Premier League survival in recent seasons demonstrates resilience, an exodus of talent could undoubtedly complicate their efforts to compete in a demanding league. Furthermore, glimpses of unpredictable behaviour from club ownership after matches might add another layer of perceived instability that influences betting patterns.
Forest isn`t alone among established Premier League sides attracting significant relegation attention. Brentford is another club featuring prominently in the betting data, accounting for 32% of the market share, just shy of Forest. Priced around 7/2, the Bees` situation is largely attributed to the departure of their highly successful manager, Thomas Frank. Navigating a new era under different leadership introduces an element of uncertainty that bettors are clearly considering, despite the club`s solid performance in recent years.
Interestingly, while Forest and Brentford lead in terms of betting volume, the team with the shortest odds – traditionally labelled the `favourite` for relegation – is often one of the newly promoted clubs. For 2025/26, Sunderland currently holds this status, priced at a tight 2/9. However, they have received significantly less betting volume, capturing only about 8% of the market. This divergence suggests many punters are looking beyond the most obvious candidates, seeking value bets elsewhere.
The pattern of newly promoted teams struggling has been stark in recent Premier League seasons, with all three spots being filled by Championship graduates for two consecutive years. The market generally expects this trend to continue, with Burnley (7/20) and Leeds (17/20) also facing short odds for the drop alongside Sunderland. Yet, the betting data indicates a shift in focus, suggesting that while the promoted trio are the statistical favourites by price, the perceived risk among a large segment of bettors lies with clubs already in the division who might be facing transitional periods or other challenges. Among the promoted sides, Leeds is often cited as potentially having the best chance of defying expectations.
Ultimately, the early betting landscape paints a picture where collective financial opinion highlights potential vulnerabilities not just among the newcomers, but also within established ranks. The high volume of bets on Nottingham Forest and Brentford suggests that issues like player turnover or managerial changes in existing Premier League teams are seen by punters as significant predictors of future difficulty, perhaps even more so than the inherent challenge faced by any club stepping up from the Championship. Only time, and 38 demanding matches, will reveal whether these early predictions hold true.
