In the vibrant world of football, clichés abound. One frequently heard assertion is that a league title is a marathon, not a sprint. However, a closer look at Portugal`s top-flight, the Primeira Liga, suggests that for a select few, the initial sprint might just be the most decisive leg of the race. As the Portuguese proverb wisely states, “Candeia que vai à frente alumia duas vezes” (The lantern that goes ahead lights twice) – a sentiment that resonates with surprising accuracy in the pursuit of the national championship.
Winning a league is a test of consistency, resilience, and tactical acumen across 34 demanding rounds. Yet, historical data from the Primeira Liga points to a compelling trend: teams that establish an early lead often find themselves celebrating at the season`s conclusion. This isn`t merely about building a points advantage; it’s about sending a psychological tremor through the competition, hinting at an almost predestined path to glory.
The Five-Round Verdict: A Strong Indicator, but Not Prophetic
Our analysis delves into the past five completed Primeira Liga seasons, examining the league standings after the initial five matchdays. This early snapshot reveals a significant, though not absolute, correlation with the eventual champion:
- In three out of the last five seasons, the team leading the Primeira Liga after the first five rounds went on to clinch the title. This includes Sporting`s triumphs in the 2024/25 and 2023/24 campaigns, and Benfica`s victory in 2022/23.
- For instance, in the 2024/25 season, Sporting under Rúben Amorim (before his widely anticipated move) had a perfect record after five games, setting a formidable pace that their rivals, FC Porto and Benfica, simply couldn`t match in the long run.
- Similarly, Benfica`s perfect start in 2022/23 under Roger Schmidt proved to be the foundation for their championship win, leaving SC Braga, FC Porto, and even Portimonense trailing in their wake.
However, the five-round mark isn`t a flawless crystal ball. In the 2021/22 and 2020/21 seasons, it was Benfica who held the top spot after five matches with maximum points. Yet, on both occasions, the Eagles were ultimately overtaken, first by FC Porto in 2021/22 and then by Sporting in 2020/21. This serves as a cautionary tale: a lightning start is invaluable, but the championship requires sustained brilliance, not just an opening burst.
The Ten-Round Revelation: An Unblemished Record
Extending our gaze to the ten-round mark paints a far more definitive picture. For those who relish an early indication of a champion, the Primeira Liga offers an almost uncanny prognosticator:
Across the last five Primeira Liga seasons, the team that was leading (or co-leading) the league after ten matchdays invariably lifted the championship trophy. This record stands at a perfect five out of five.
This statistic is remarkably robust. Let`s consider the recent examples:
- In 2024/25, Sporting`s impeccable start continued past the tenth round, cementing their position and foreshadowing their eventual title.
- The 2023/24 season saw Sporting with a near-perfect record of nine wins and one draw by matchday 10, establishing a lead that Benfica and FC Porto found insurmountable.
- Benfica`s dominant 2022/23 season also saw them leading comfortably after ten rounds, a lead they never truly relinquished despite some late-season jitters.
- Even in the 2021/22 season, where Benfica initially led at five rounds, by the tenth round, FC Porto and Sporting were joint leaders. Ultimately, it was FC Porto who pulled ahead to claim the title, demonstrating that being among the frontrunners at this stage is crucial.
- And in 2020/21, Sporting, the eventual champions, were the sole undefeated leaders after ten games, defying early predictions and ending their 19-year title drought.
This consistent pattern underscores the unique dynamics of the Primeira Liga, where the traditional “Big Three” – Sporting, Benfica, and FC Porto – often dominate, dropping very few points against the smaller clubs. This creates a high-stakes environment where any significant early slip-up can prove incredibly costly, turning the championship race into a relentless pursuit of perfection.
The Road Ahead: 2025/26 Season and the Early Chase
As the 2025/26 season looms, this historical precedent adds an extra layer of intrigue. Sporting, fresh off their “bicampeonato,” faces the challenge of a potential “tricampeonato,” albeit without key figures like Gyökeres, their top scorer from previous campaigns. Benfica and FC Porto, on the other hand, have reportedly invested heavily in the transfer market, signaling their intent to reclaim dominance. FC Porto, in particular, has made a significant coaching change, bringing in the Italian Francesco Farioli to lead their charge.
For fans and analysts alike, the early rounds of the upcoming season will be more than just a warm-up. They will be a critical litmus test, an early indicator of who truly has the “lantern that lights twice.” While surprises are always possible in football, the Primeira Liga`s recent history suggests that those who fail to establish a commanding presence by the tenth round might find themselves facing an uphill battle, hoping for a stumble from the leaders that rarely materializes.
In the end, while the journey to a league title is long, the Primeira Liga consistently reminds us that for its elite contenders, lighting the path early often means illuminating the celebration late.
