Even with Barcelona securing the league title and the Champions League spots decided, the final matchday of La Liga will still determine the last two European qualifications and, crucially, the final two relegation places. While Real Oviedo’s return to the top flight ended anticlimactically, two slots in the Segunda División remain open. Heading into the decisive weekend, five teams are locked in a desperate fight for survival: Levante, Osasuna, Elche, Girona, and Mallorca.
The highlight of the final round is the “do-or-die” encounter at Montilivi, where 18th-placed Girona host 17th-placed Elche. A Girona victory would likely seal Elche’s fate, while Elche only needs a draw to guarantee safety. Meanwhile, Mallorca faces a must-win home game against the already-relegated Oviedo, pinning their hopes on a complex set of results involving Girona, Getafe, and Real Betis for a favorable tiebreak. Levante and Osasuna, however, control their own destinies, needing just a single point against Real Betis and Getafe, respectively, to secure their La Liga status.
RCD Mallorca – 19th – 39 points
RCD Mallorca finds itself in the most precarious position, sitting 19th with 39 points. Relegated teams often struggle with efficiency in crucial areas. While Mallorca possesses a strong goalkeeper in Leo Roman, who is on the longlist for Spain’s World Cup squad, and a prolific striker in Vedat Muriqi, the league’s second-highest scorer, their struggles are puzzling. The squad was not built for a relegation battle but rather for a European push. Mallorca may have become overly reliant on long balls to Muriqi, simplifying their attack. However, the most significant factor in their downfall has been the erosion of their once-solid defense. According to Opta Analyst data, Mallorca has conceded the highest expected goals in La Liga. Coaching and player changes have gradually weakened their defensive structure.
In an attempt to turn their season around, the club appointed Argentinian manager Martin Demichelis, who aimed to revitalize the defense and implement a more robust pressing style. Despite some initial positive results, these efforts proved insufficient, and the team lost vital games against direct relegation rivals like Elche and Levante. Relegation would be a devastating blow for Mallorca, a club that has established itself as a stable La Liga mid-table side, even reaching the Copa del Rey final in 2024. A drop to Segunda would derail their long-term project and likely force the sale of key players like Muriqi.
Girona – 18th – 40 points
It was perhaps unsurprising that Girona could not replicate their historic 2023-24 season, where they nearly challenged for the title and reached the Champions League. However, their significant drop from the top of the table to 18th place with 40 points has been unexpected. Manager Michel Sanchez has consistently prioritized his offensive and high-possession principles. His previous stints with Huesca and Rayo Vallecano were short-lived in the top flight, as Michel struggled to find a balance between offensive freedom and defensive solidity. This was precisely why Michel and Girona worked so well initially; the City Football Group provided enough offensive talent to keep Girona away from the relegation zone and in mid-table, allowing Michel to focus on his attacking vision.
However, as top clubs raided Girona’s squad after the 2023-24 season, CFG did not replace the departing talent with players of similar caliber. Michel has attempted to be more flexible this season to steer Girona clear of relegation, and there were periods where this strategy proved effective. Nevertheless, similar to Mallorca, Girona has lost momentum in the final eight games of the season. Beyond the threat of relegation, Michel’s contract with Girona expires this season, and a renewal seems unlikely. His tactical approach benefits from greater offensive talent, and he is likely to attract offers from clubs with more resources. A future without Michel appears uncertain for Girona, and relegation would only exacerbate this.
Elche – 17th – 42 points
Elche currently occupies the final ‘safe’ spot in 17th place with 42 points. Eder Sarabia’s team has experienced a rollercoaster season. Initial doubts about Sarabia’s squad and playing style in La Liga were quickly dispelled as Elche became one of Spanish football’s breakthrough teams. They dominated possession while maintaining a solid and energetic defense, appearing to be genuine contenders for European spots. However, a winless streak in January and February saw them drift dangerously close to the relegation zone. Their solid defense largely vanished, and Elche now has the second-worst expected goals conceded in the league, consistently allowing shots and goals from set pieces and individual errors. Their away record is also poor, with only one away win this season against Real Oviedo.
Sarabia’s team has shown an uptick in results recently, including a win against Atletico. They are in a more positive dynamic, but it hasn’t been enough to fully escape relegation danger. Avoiding defeat against Girona will be sufficient for them to stay in La Liga, but Elche’s away record does not inspire much confidence. Adding to their challenges, Sarabia will be absent from the touchline for this crucial game due to a suspension for allegedly insulting the referee after the match against Real Betis. A loss would likely be fatal unless a favorable combination of results elsewhere occurs. Relegation would be particularly painful given their strong performances at certain stages of the season. However, even if relegated, Sarabia’s project has proven viable in La Liga, and the club would be wise to continue supporting him.
Osasuna – 16th – 42 points
Osasuna finds itself in a concerning position. Just a few months ago, the team seemed poised for a strong season, potentially even challenging for European spots under Alessio Lisci. A month ago, Osasuna would not have been considered a relegation candidate. However, they have won only one of their last eight games, plummeting from 8th place to 16th, level on 42 points. This decline can partly be attributed to a challenging schedule that included home games against Barcelona and Atletico, as well as a visit to San Mames. What is harder to explain, however, is their losses against Espanyol and Levante.
This string of defeats marks a disappointing end to what appeared to be a promising season for Lisci and Osasuna. For Osasuna to be relegated, they would need to lose their game against Getafe, and other results would have to fall in such a way as to create a four-way tie with Levante, Mallorca, and Elche (relegating them), or a three-way tie with Elche and Mallorca. While not the most probable scenario, it remains a possibility. Historically, Osasuna prides itself on being a consistent and resilient fixture in Spanish football. Relegation would be disastrous for a project that has demonstrated stability and consistency for many years.
Levante – 15th – 42 points
While other teams on this list are struggling due to poor recent form, Levante has experienced the opposite. Following three crucial consecutive wins against Osasuna, Celta Vigo, and Mallorca, Levante has climbed out of the relegation zone and sits in 15th place with 42 points. If they avoid defeat against Betis, they will remain in Primera. However, a loss, combined with specific results elsewhere, could still see them relegated.
Levante appointed veteran Portuguese manager Luis Castro in December with the primary objective of avoiding relegation. Castro prioritized a slower, more controlled style with deliberate ball circulation. The squad responded positively to his calm demeanor and playing style, with several players improving their performances in the second half of the season. A standout performer has been young center-forward Carlos Espi, who has scored nine goals in the last three months. Even when he doesn’t score, his impact on Levante’s attack is evident, creating space for teammates. Relegation would not come as a complete surprise to Levante and its supporters, but it would be particularly painful given the effort put into their strong finish to the season. Levante would undoubtedly want to avoid the uncertainty of being a ‘yo-yo’ club, constantly moving between divisions.
