As La Liga approaches its final matchday, the stakes are incredibly high. Five teams are locked in a tense relegation battle, while another five are competing for coveted European spots. Here’s a breakdown of each team’s situation, including their requirements and potential outcomes.
- The Relegation Battle
- RCD Mallorca – 19th – 39 points
- Girona – 18th – 40 points
- Elche – 17th – 42 points
- Osasuna – 16th – 42 points
- Levante – 15th – 42 points
- The European Race
- Celta Vigo – 6th – 51 points
- Getafe – 7th – 48 points
- Rayo Vallecano – 8th – 47 points
- Valencia – 9th – 46 points
- Real Sociedad – 10th – 45 points
- Espanyol – 11th – 45 points
The Relegation Battle
RCD Mallorca – 19th – 39 points
Mallorca faces the most perilous situation. To retain any hope of survival, they must defeat Real Oviedo at home and then closely monitor the results of Girona’s match against Elche and Getafe’s game against Osasuna. Their survival hinges on a specific combination of results: Girona beating Elche, Getafe defeating Osasuna, and Levante avoiding defeat against Real Betis. In this scenario, Mallorca would secure their place in La Liga via a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker involving Osasuna and Elche, with Real Oviedo and either Osasuna or Elche joining them in the Segunda División.
Girona – 18th – 40 points
Girona’s fate is straightforward: a victory against Elche at home is essential for them to remain in La Liga. Failure to secure three points will result in their relegation.
Elche – 17th – 42 points
Elche will secure their La Liga status for next season if they avoid defeat against Girona. A loss, however, would likely see them relegated. The only scenario where Elche could stay up after a loss is if a rare four-way tie occurs at 42 points, involving Osasuna, Levante, and RCD Mallorca. This would require Levante to lose to Real Betis, Osasuna to be defeated by Getafe, and Mallorca to beat Real Oviedo.
Osasuna – 16th – 42 points
Alessio Lisci’s side faces a challenging but clear objective: avoid defeat against Getafe at the Coliseum to guarantee their survival. If they lose, they would be relegated, both in a four-way tie with Levante, Mallorca, and Elche, and in a three-way tie with Elche and Mallorca.
Levante – 15th – 42 points
Levante has put themselves in a strong position. If they avoid defeat against Real Betis, they will remain in La Liga. However, they would be relegated if they lose AND Girona beats Elche, Mallorca fails to beat Oviedo, and Osasuna avoids defeat against Getafe. In that specific set of circumstances, Levante would be relegated due to tiebreakers with Elche.
The European Race
Celta Vigo – 6th – 51 points
Celta Vigo has already secured a place in European competition. If they earn any points against Sevilla at Balaidos, or if Getafe fails to beat Osasuna, Celta will qualify for the Europa League for a second consecutive season. Should Celta lose to Sevilla and Getafe win against Osasuna, Celta would drop to 7th place and secure a spot in the Conference League.
Getafe – 7th – 48 points
A victory for Getafe will guarantee them a place in Europe next season. If Celta loses their match, Getafe’s win would secure them a Europa League spot and 6th place. If Celta avoids defeat, Getafe’s win will secure them a Conference League spot. Real Sociedad could still potentially finish 7th by overtaking Getafe with a win over Espanyol, though Real Sociedad has already secured Europa League football through their Copa del Rey victory.
If Getafe draws, and Rayo Vallecano wins against Alaves, Rayo would leapfrog Getafe. If Getafe loses and Rayo draws, Rayo would qualify for the Conference League.
In the event that Getafe loses and Valencia wins, Valencia would claim 7th place. If Espanyol and Athletic Club both win, Rayo draws, and Getafe loses, Espanyol would emerge victorious in a mini-league for 7th place.
Rayo Vallecano – 8th – 47 points
Rayo Vallecano will return to the Conference League if they defeat Alaves and Getafe fails to beat Osasuna. If Rayo draws, they would only qualify if Getafe loses and Valencia fails to win. Furthermore, Rayo still has a chance to qualify for the Europa League if they can defeat Crystal Palace in the Conference League final four days later.
Valencia – 9th – 46 points
Valencia needs to beat Barcelona to have a chance at finishing 7th and securing European football. In addition, Los Che require Getafe to fail to beat Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano to not beat Alaves.
Real Sociedad – 10th – 45 points
As mentioned, Real Sociedad has already secured a spot in the Europa League for the upcoming season. They possess a slim possibility of finishing 7th based on head-to-head results with Getafe, but this would require them to beat Espanyol and for Getafe to lose to Osasuna, Rayo Vallecano to lose to Alaves, and Valencia to fail to beat Barcelona.
Espanyol – 11th – 45 points
Espanyol has a very slim chance of qualifying for the Conference League. This would necessitate a win against Real Sociedad, coupled with Getafe losing to Osasuna, Rayo Vallecano failing to beat Alaves, Valencia failing to beat Barcelona, and Athletic Club defeating Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu. This precise outcome would place them at the top of a four-way head-to-head league for 7th place. For Espanyol to emerge on top of these head-to-head standings, both they and Athletic Club must win their respective matches.
If Espanyol ends up in a tie with Getafe, they would need a significant five-goal swing between Getafe’s potential loss to Osasuna and their own victory over Real Sociedad. This scenario also relies on Rayo Vallecano losing to Alaves and Valencia failing to defeat Barcelona.
